China’s population has shrunk for the first time since the 1960s, bringing it one step closer to India overtaking China as the world’s most populous nation.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said during a briefing on annual data on Tuesday that the country’s population will fall to 1.411 billion by 2022, a decrease of about 850,000 people from the previous year. The last time China’s population fell was in 1961 when a nationwide famine killed tens of millions of people.
This time, many factors are responsible for the decline, including the extensive fallout from China’s one-child policy, which it introduced in the 1980s but has since abandoned, Chinese youth’s changing attitudes toward marriage and family, entrenched gender inequality, and the difficulties of raising children in the country’s expensive cities.
As the world’s second-largest economy, China plays an important role in driving global growth, but experts warn that if the trend continues, it could also spell trouble for the rest of the world. China’s workforce is aging, which is already a problem, and a declining population is likely to make matters worse as the country tries to recover from the pandemic.
Table of Contents
China Population Decline
China’s one-child policy, which banned families from having more than one child for more than 35 years, is partly responsible for the population decline. Women who broke the rule were often subjected to forced abortions, significant punishment, and expulsion.
The government lifted the restriction after worrying about the recent decline in the birth rate. Couples were allowed to have two children in 2015, which increased to three in 2021. But for various reasons, the change in law and other government initiatives have not had much impact, such as providing financial incentives.
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Major contributing causes include rising house prices and high living and education costs. Many people, especially those living in cities, struggle with stagnant salaries, a lack of job opportunities, and long hours that make it challenging and expensive to raise even one child, let alone three.
These problems are exacerbated by persistent gender roles that often assign women most of the household and child care duties. As women are now more educated and financially independent than ever, they are less and less willing to take on this unfair burden.
Employers are often reluctant to pay for maternity leave, and women have also reported being discriminated against at work based on their marital or parental status. Measures such as better childcare and paternity leave options have already started in some cities and provinces. But many feminists and campaigners feel it’s nowhere near enough.
With a disillusioned younger population whose livelihoods and well-being were undermined by China’s strict zero-Covid policy, frustrations during the pandemic were further exacerbated.
What this means for China
China’s demographic problems are likely to worsen due to a declining population. The younger generation is under great pressure due to the aging of the population and the shrinking working population.
Nearly one-fifth of China’s population is elderly, according to estimates released on Tuesday. According to some experts, the country may be on the same path as Japan, which experienced three decades of economic stagnation in the early 1990s, which also happened to be the time of its aging population.
“China’s economy is entering a critical transition phase, no longer able to rely on an abundant, cost-competitive workforce to drive industrialization and growth,” said HSBC chief economist for Asia, Frederic Neumann.
“As the supply of workers begins to shrink, productivity growth will need to pick up to support the economy’s heady pace of expansion.”
Months of Covid lockdowns and a record decline in the real estate market will see China’s economy grow at just 3% in 2022, one of its worst performances in more than 50 years. With fewer people in work, the recovery could become even more complicated as China resumes international travel and lifts many of the heavy restrictions it has maintained over the past five years.
There are also social consequences. Population aging means fewer workers will pay for pensions and health care, increasing demand for these services and putting pressure on China’s social security system. Since many young people already work to support their parents and two sets of grandparents, there will also be fewer people to care for the elderly.
Implication for the world
China’s problems could have repercussions for the rest of the world because of its importance as a driver of the global economy. The epidemic has shown how China’s internal problems can affect the flow of trade and investment as border controls and lockdowns hurt supply chains.
A weakening Chinese economy could undermine China’s goal of surpassing the US as the most excellent economy and slowing global growth.
“China’s limited ability to respond to this demographic shift is likely to lead to slower growth outcomes over the next 20 to 30 years and affect its ability to compete with the United States on the global stage.” the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies said in an August article on its website.
India, whose population and economy are growing, looks set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country this year. So tweeted Yi Fuxian, a Chinese demography student at the University of Wisconsin-Madison “India is the biggest winner.”
While Yi acknowledged that India’s GDP would one day overtake the US, there is still a long way to go. After passing the United Kingdom to become the world’s fifth-largest economy last year, several analysts have raised concerns that India is not producing enough jobs to accommodate the growing workforce.
However, the news from China may also have a positive side, according to some researchers.
“For climate change and the environment, a smaller population is an advantage, not a curse”, Mary Gallagher tweeted, director of the International Institute at the University of Michigan. Peter Kalmus, climate scientist at NASAargued that population decline should not be viewed “like something terrible”, points to instead “exponentially accelerating global warming and loss of biodiversity.”
The measures taken by the government
Officials in China have stepped up efforts to support larger families, most notably through a multi-agency plan unveiled last year to extend maternity leave and provide tax credits and other benefits to families. This was promised by Chinese President Xi Jinping in October “strengthening the population development strategy” and reduce the financial strain on families.
China’s population is expected to start shrinking before 2025 https://t.co/K2yU3oHsws pic.twitter.com/tM99niGxgj
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 25, 2022
“[We will] establish a policy system to increase birth rates and reduce costs of pregnancy and childbirth, parenting and schooling,” Xi said. “We will pursue a proactive national strategy in response to the aging population, develop programs and services for aged care, and provide better services to older people living alone.”
Some areas even offer financial incentives to promote more births. In 2021, a hamlet in southern Guangdong province announced it would pay permanent residents with children under two and a half up to $510 a month, or a maximum of more than $15,000 per child.
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Housing subsidies have been made available for couples with many children in other regions. However, many experts and locals argue that more extensive national reforms are needed because those efforts have not yielded results. After Tuesday’s news broke, a hashtag went viral on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like platform: “To stimulate childbirth, you first have to solve the concerns of young people.”
“Our salaries are so low, the rent so high and the financial pressure so heavy. My future husband will be working overtime every day until the end of the year until 3am. one Weibo user wrote. “My survival and health are already issues, let alone having kids.”
Closing
The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Tuesday that the population of mainland China was 1.411 billion at the end of 2022, a reduction of 850,000 from the previous year. Please forward this message and encourage your friends and family to stop by ledaily.com for the latest news.
